Horse Racing Advice Article # 1

Betting At Royal Ascot

At Royal Ascot, it isn’t easy to achieve significant value when there are so many favourites that historically get placed. This presents a great challenge to punters like you and I.

In recent years, half of the favourites have placed and returned low dividends, however there have been years the dividends were actually large. The difference in dividend size depends greatly on the odds that are placed on the horses in handicaps.

In smaller races, for example, the top favourites would place, however 16/1 horses all making the top four in the large handicaps end up wiping out most punters and can actually return very good dividends. As you can see – odds make a significant impact. Last year’s Royal Ascot returned some rather large dividends in such races where favourites made the top.

Favourites, on average at Royal Ascot, will win about 27% of the time. However, keep in mind that before 2001, favourites had placed 60% of the time, and the poor performances in 2001 was what resulted in some significant returns in that year. The smaller returns that have come again more recently are from many more favourites placing.

The important thing that a successful punter must do is to find the races where value can be had; it may be that the favourite not only has the best chance of placing, but also where the favourite is more likely to finish unplaced. In either kind of race – there’s profit to be made.

There’s little point in betting on 4 or 5 favourites since returns would be rather small – instead you should focus on value horses, sometimes of course this includes favourites. Only by betting in this manner will you stand to gain the most reward.

Statistics show that as far as Royal Ascot tips are concerned, favourites have the best chances of placing in stakes races. Furthermore the big field handicaps have favourites placing 48% of the time. Those who were off at odds on placed a whopping 78%. And those with odds of 5/1 or more placed 45%. These are all very important numbers to keep in mind when you are entering favourites down for your bets.

Another factor to keep in mind is that some jockeys will place better than others. While the horse plays the greatest role in placement, it’s important to note that top jockeys do place better than others at the meeting, especially where the performances of horses are similar. Some jockeys have natural ability to handle the ride better than others, and the jockey’s historical record should be taken into careful account when deciding on your betting system, which we do.

For example, in modern times at Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori has been most consistent in getting placed. However, the most recent (2008) statistics I have show that Godolphin runners typically place 42% of the time, so not all of this placing may have been on his part. Additionally, Mick Kinane actually has the best record of all for placing when he is on a favourite. Of the 24 times he has ridden a favourite, he has placed a whopping 17 times!

Obviously, there are many issues to consider when betting on favourites at Royal Ascot, which is why we are cautious in our approach at this meeting. It is most important to review the historical trends of the meeting too, and to follow the advice to never bet with your heart, always with your head.